2/6 Recap

Semis were smashed off the open today. Those names have run so hard, so fast and now, depending on how they close, alot look to be putting in bearish engulfing candles. This is something to watch with NVDA yet to report and an analyst at Barclays this morning downgrading the bonds.

The SPY is actually green today, so breadth is improving, in the past if big tech was hit, the market was down. We’re just drifting along above the 8 ema, which is nice to see when the market leader NVDA is getting crushed along with MSFT,AMZN, and META pretty much the 4 stocks that have contributed the most to the market this year. This is what you want to see for the overall health of the market.

Keep your eye on SMH there were some sizable puts bought yesterday on SOXL in the notes, and today some more. Could semis be putting in a top? Never say never but so far some ugly candles forming and this could be a potential double top. Until we get some confirmation with a break of the moving averages below, it is always just an educated guess.

Recent Trades

I had highlighted SPOT as a best idea on 1/13 Link

It hit nearly $250 this morning and currently at $235.xx it’s up 15% from the $203 level it was then.

The call ratio I suggested in that recap is up a few hundred percent with nearly a year to go. So congrats if you played you can ride that trade now.

I always get the questions of how do you size this stuff? You know my allocation to Amazon leaps. You absolutely have to be very right when you bet big money, but these smaller bets like SYM I took yesterday or YINN which I added a small amount of 2026 calls at $25, these are small asymmetrical bets. What does that mean? You invest a small amount, maybe 1% of your book or less and if it works, great, if it doesn’t you don’t cry about it because your big bets are the ones you need to pay off. If one of these goes 10x and 7 don’t work out, you’re still ontop.

YINN I noted in the 1/29 recap. I said this could potentially be a life changing trade. YINN is up 16% today. It is a 3x China trade. If you had just thrown a tiny bit at those calls this player took in 2026, it was a bet that could potentially pay off many fold in the coming years if China normalizes.

So don’t look at these trades in terms of how many work and don’t. Size the ones you believe in up, the rest should be bets on massive upside that won’t change your life if they don’t work. Something like SYM yesterday, Walmart owns 20% of it, it has all the buzzwords of AI, Robotics, Automation what if it pulls an SMCI down the road? I don’t know, earnings yesterday were ok to me, revenue was up almost 100%, but the stock was down 20%, it doesn’t change the potential for upside over a longer period. Again if the bet is wrong, it is wrong, but 1% of my book means nothing and I only need my biggest bets to work, and that’s Amazon and to this point that one has worked well.

Trends

1 Week

2 Week

Year To Date

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, it expires tomorrow morning at the open. I will add the rest of the action from the session after the recap by the end of the night as always and you can see see the adjust trends.