2/7 Recap.

These markets are all over the place, every week I need a calendar of who is speaking and when. Truly it is getting exhausting. Today Powell spoke and we sold off and then we rallied right back to /NQ +180 as I type up this recap at 2:30. It feels like we have a 2% move near daily on the SPX these days and that’s especially odd with where the VIX is, when volatility is that low, the corresponding moves are supposed to be small. We’re moving like a VIX 30 would move with the VIX at sub 19. Odd times. I still think we’re going to remain flattish until CPI next week. That will end up being the moment we finally get a direction to continue on.

SPY

Big rally today, led in a big way by the powerful move Microsoft made. When the 2nd largest component in the market goes up over 4%, it’s going to drag the index along for the ride. We continue to have green candles, 12 in the last 13 days, this is some extended move after breaking out of the downtrend. Even today, we tested lower and the dip was immediately bought. It’s going to take something drastic to change this trend, CPI is the bears only hope right now.

IWM

This was the laggard today, it might finally be stalling out. You have Powell talking about higher terminal rates, for longer than anticipated, and everyone in the soft landing camp has to be contemplating their rationale at the moment. IWM also tested below the 8/10 EMA and was immediately bought up, whether they’re bear market rallies or a new bull market remains to be seen, but for the moment they’re strength.

DXY

The dollar continued its move up in the morning and then sold off hard. It was an interesting turn and why equities took off. This continues to be all you need to watch to get a grip on where equities are going. Dollar up stocks down, dollar down stocks up. It’s really that simple. The dollar should have been down more with how much equities were up, so keep an eye on that divergence, the dollar isn’t buying the move.

Oil

Up over 4% today was a pretty substantial move for oil, it’s not out of the woods yet with charts still being broken as you can see it stuck below lots of moving averages above, but this move isn’t one to ignore with a close over the 8/10.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out