3/11/26 Recap

The SPY is not really doing anything notable, just another inside day under the 8 ema. This is a series of lower highs which is suboptimal but we got CPI out of the way this morning and things were fine, inflation is under control for now, but hard to believe that will be the case going forward if oil stays elevated for an extended period. Yesterday we had a big drop in oil prices on a tweet from the Secretary of Energy which was later deleted and oil has reversed and risen by over 12% since including 6% today. Also something is just not right in private credit, it really feels like someone is going to implode soon the way these financials are acting but right now the news regarding the war is all over the place and the market is just choppy because of that.

Tech continues to linger under the 50 and 100 day. The QQQ needs to power above those to regain its uptrend, but more than that we need to see back to back closes above the 21 ema which we haven’t seen since January to show the bulls are back in charge. Every move up is rejected at the 21 ema and I think we’re honestly in for a little bit more of the weakness until vixpiration next week. Along with that hopefully some more distance on this war as Trump said today we’re close to an end and he could end the war whenever he wants. All that will help shift money back to tech.

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