3/12/25 Recap

The SPY remains dreadful, look at this huge fade we had all day so far. With the speed of this downturn, I think the 5th quickest 10% decline ever, the moving averages have not caught up, we haven’t touched the 8 ema in 7 sessions. There isn’t much to say here, we are mired in a deep bearish trend, that is why I said yesterday all pops will be sold, these moving averages overheard become stiff resistance where computers sell. This morning we nearly fully faded a 300 point gap up on the /NQ. This is not time for longs, maybe if you’re a scalper, but have not hit a tradable bottom.

The one that should concern you is the XLP, look at this chart, this is the consumer staples ETF which has been a defensive beacon in this weakness, it is collapsing the last 3 days and Apple too which held up so strong is losing the 200 day. So there is really no safe spaces left to hide at this moment.

Recent Trades

ACMR - a month back in the 2/12 recap I highlight these trades here and the name is up 19% since in the face of all this weakness. Really notable relative strength, imagine if we come out of this weakness.

My Open Book