3/12/26 Recap

The SPY is back near the monday open right now, this war is turning into a nightmare for Trump. The 200 day is around 1% lower near 660 and we likely will touch it now. While we are decimating their capabilities, it doesn’t appear that we have a solution for how to control the Strait of Hormuz right now and the massive oil fade we saw earlier this week has been bid up with oil rising almost 11% right today. Until we have something in place for the Strait, the market will not be happy. The market is pretty much inverse oil right now, higher oil means higher inflation ahead and stocks lower. How long does this persist? I don’t know but this is a mess for now and the VIX is up over 10% meanwhile Trump was telling a crowd yesterday that we already won the war. The way oil is acting, you can see pretty clearly that we may be winning but we have not won the war as of this moment.

Oil is our headwind for the moment and there isn’t much to say this is a really nice chart below that is just riding the 8 ema higher. We completely absorbed the headline of Trump releasing the strategic reserve which is not good and now this has a clear shot at highs. The political blowback from this could be massive and force Trump to cut his losses and move on if it persists. He can claim we knocked out IRGC capabilities and leave at any moment without actually achieving regime change but make no mistake this oil market by itself could force his hand. High gasoline prices, high inflation, and a war are not what a president wants heading into midterms.

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