3/1/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

It was looking bleak late into the Friday afternoon session the SPY was at 588 with 25 minutes to go in the session and we needed to rally 2 points to avoid our first weekly close under the 21 week. All of a sudden out of nowhere, the final 20 minutes of the day were a herculean pump that took us all the way up to 594. The market was saved once again. For a little bit at least.

If we look at the final daily candle I still don’t see anything uber bullish. Yes they closed it right back over the 100 day and 21 week, but it was just an inside candle on the daily with the 8/21/50 all still beginning to slope down. While it was an exciting finish for bulls, I would say that until we start seeing closes over that 21 ema near 600 and coming down, this is not a bullish time. I still think TLT last week was the right play, it was up almost $3 this week, while the overall market was red as the rate cut thesis began to take hold.

This week’s best idea is a quality name that saw 3 bullish trades this week that caught my eye with 2 well out of the money. It also held up well and was green this week. We’re going to discuss a no cost risk reversal that will pay you profit even if this name falls 15%. If the upside calls I note below go in the money, this trade will pay out a fortune.