3/13/26 Recap, Now It Is Time To Be Cautious Officially
The SPY continues its drift towards that 200 day like a magnet. We completely reversed our green open today when Trump began speaking. The market did not like his comments that it could take more than a month to gain control of Hormuz and oil went from red to green and equities dumped. The market was hoping for a quick resolution bringing oil prices down but now we have to begin pricing in the very real scenario this war goes longer than anticipated and inflation starts to ramp again and become sticky. This market should be focused on GTC next week and all the major things our biggest company NVDA will be announcing but it instead grappling with this war and the economic fallout that will come from what now seems like it will be a long and drawn out conflict if regime change is really the goal.
The big issue now is the weekly bearish cross I discussed a few days back, the 8/21 will cross down on the weekly this week. If we had a really sharp move up the last 3 days we may have avoided it but now it is happening. As I said, this has only occurred 3x since 2020 and all led to nasty market downturns. Is this going to lead to another? History says yes but there’s always time for a first everything. The chart below is sadly telling you it is time to exit all tech stocks if you’re in them short term until that 21 week can be reclaimed.
Top Gainers From Yesterday’s Recap
My Open Book
