3/16/26 Recap
The SPY is making a fairly meaningless move today as we gapped up but remain below the 8 ema. The VIX is also down 11% while oil is also selling off fueling this rally. With that said, this is still a clear downtrend even as rumors begin to swirl of Trump wanting to end the war. Look the reality of the situation is this, we entered this war with Israel saying we wanted regime change and while all this bombing has definitely set Iran back years which is a win in itself the fact remains that without regime change this is not a win right now. The big fear was Iran getting their hands on a nuclear bomb, that threat still exists even if we declare victory and go home today. Regime change is not happening without a long war. So Trump is in a pickle where he can leave whenever but that doesn’t mean Hormuz is back to normal which means oil would remain bid and the threat we started this over, Iran having nukes, would still persist. If we leave it would mean Trump chose to try and save the economy and market by realizing the war was not good for either. That is definitely still an option, but again, the ball is in Iran’s court right now because Hormuz won’t normalize until Iran stops with the drone attacks and tankers can go back to normal.
As for the bearish cross down on tech stocks we discussed last week, look at today’s gap up on tech below. We are still on the underside of this 8/21 cross down and until we clear that, this is all just nothing of note for bulls. You’re in a downtrend until you aren’t. The GTC conference this week is huge for tech, expect alot of announcements with Jensen speaking at 2 pm EST today. With NVDA being 10% of the Nasdaq there is alot of potential should NVDA rally hard. We still have a very bright future with AI, that hasn’t changed, the macro issues with Iran are in the way until we have clarity on the situation and begin to price in the realities of how long oil stays elevated. Once we do that, we will be back to the AI trade with what you saw this morning in the large NBIS/META deal.
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