3/17/26 Recap
The SPY is rejecting the 8 ema right now and we’ll have to see where this candle closes today but the SPY has not closed over the 8 ema in 13 sesssions, it would be a big first step if we could close over that today. The VIX is cooling off down another 5% but still over 22 and oil is only up 1% today.
For this market to get some legs under it we need oil to cool down as soon as possible before the doom loop settles in where consumer confidence takes a hit and people stop spending as they fear the coming price increases across the board. I’m not a bear but I think people are too complacent with what is happening. I know every event ends up being a nothing ever happens and stocks always go up, I’m sure stocks will eventually go up here too, but this is some serious destruction under the surface to our energy markets and while we aren’t even 3 weeks into this now, if this persists say 2-3 months, I do feel the market is going to get ugly and while many think Trump has an off ramp soon, I personally don’t see it just because us leaving without regime change will be considered a loss by nearly everyone no matter how far we’ve set Iran back so far. I think the market is in denial of how long oil is going to stay bid and I think it will get messier before it gets better. I’d love to be wrong on that, in fact I truly hope I am. Am I worried long term? No, we’ve been through tons of events over the years and stocks are always up and to the right over time, we’re up 100% since covid was going to end humanity, we will be fine, but I think this conflict is going to cause inflation and oil spikes for longer than people think.
The QQQ is rejecting the underside of the 21 ema right now and while this is a nice 2 day rally as Trump discusses potential offramps to the war, until he actually acts on one which doesn’t seem likely right now, you have to think these are all just countertrend rallies. Bulls would like to see a close over that 21 ema just over 605 today, we’ve only had 2 of those in the past month.
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