3/18 Recap

We woke up to a big move up in the Nasdaq. Nvidia was heading into its big event today, but it completely reversed that opening move up and has now filled the gap from friday. The other big news driving markets was rumors that Apple and Google were in talks to implement Gemini onto the new Iphones later this year. This doesn’t seem farfetched considering what Google pays Apple to be the default search engine on their phones. Google was up 7% on the news.

The SPY popped back over the 8 ema but remains mostly flattish, this thing is really running out of steam. If you remember 2022, running out of steam doesn’t mean everything is in trouble, it just means tech names are overdone and without tech names, due to weighting, the market is not going anywhere. Other sectors like Energy, material, utilities, etc can all work even as the SPY take a breather.

The one that concerns me most with tech is NVDA, below. Today was their big event and I’m not even saying NVDA is a bubble, its not, it makes a ton of money, but it reversed over $50 intraday today. The stock is up 75% this quarter, for a company this size, that is unheard of. It may be taking a breather. That’s normal, but if it does, the rest of tech is going to take one with it. Whatever it is, tech stocks have done great since October, there are other sectors and it likely is time to focus on those, for the short term. Long term these tech names make so much money they’re all going to be ok to own.

Recent Trades

I have 2 I want to discuss, a winner and a loser.

First the loser, FOUR, smacked down today, I highlighted it just 3 days back after some odd bullish activity, it is down almost 9% to 70.63 right now because they didn’t accept any of the offers to sell the company. Here was the headline, the company received multiple offers but didn’t like any of them, so they didn’t sell and the hot money just exited. The company is still a very good one and worth much more than the current price.

Here was what I said I still think selling puts at 65 is the right bet. Moreso today than last week. This is a quality small cap in a sea of junk.

The winner was CSGP, I highlighted it on 3/8 when it was below 87.50

The last 2 sessions it has exploded higher, crossing $100 today but what an explosive 15% move in the last 2 sessions, congrats to those who played it, that risk reversal placed 10 days ago is up a fortune right now.

Trends

I’m working on a laptop today since Im on vacation and it is really hard to pull up a decent sized graphic of the trends and option table I always post so for the next week I’m just going to post the link to the database and you all can see the trends and options table in there. This link will expire at the open tomorrow as always. I will have the rest of today’s action added by tonight.