3/18/26 Recap

The SPY rejected the 8 ema yesterday and has turned its sights back to that 200 day today after that awful PPI number this morning. The VIX is bid once again and we have FOMC here in a few hours but at this point we have a big mess ahead of us. Inflation was ramping up BEFORE we caused oil to go haywire by attacking Iran. What happens if that persists longer than what most are thinking? What does that mean for the next few inflation reports? Does Powell actually need to hike rates now? Oil was red this morning and turned up to a gain of 3% so far today. This is everything bulls do not want to see. We continue to hold that 200 day just below at 660 but if that breaks, look out below. You can imagine we will be throwing the kitchen sink at a market pump here shortly 1% away from breaking the biggest moving average.

The QQQ is doing the same thing, rejecting the 21 ema yesterday and turning lower, tech stocks are going to be the weakest sector if inflation is really starting to show its face again. This PPI number today was alarming because nobody was looking for the degree of inflation we got. There is nothing to see here other than its been 2 months since tech had any momentum and with every passing day as it drifts lower, the probabilities of the dam opening with a big move lower, grow.

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