3/19/26 Recap
The SPY gapped down below the 200 day for the first time in 10 months, I don’t know how to say this any clearer than I have the last few sessions but ever since we had that weekly 8/21 cross down on the QQQ, that was your warning sign to cut everything tech related short term, adjust your positioning to a longer term approach and buckle up because the likelihood we would get ugly was very high. Even today we perfectly retested the 200 and have rejected thus far. Let’s see if we get our first close under the 200 day. WTI Oil has just topped 101 and faded, we have some chaotic moves happening right now. Be realistic here, this is day 1 under the 200 day, we’re not bottom today, a 1 day move under the 200 day would be very very surprising.
The QQQ had the same move, naturally because tech is the bulk of the S&P. This is massive change of trend if it sticks and you have to really respect it.
You can fight this at your own peril but step back and realize this is our 4th geopolitical crisis in 6 years: Covid, the Ukraine War, the 2025 tariff fiasco, and now this. Oddly enough this is also our 4th 8/21 bearish cross down on the QQQ. The first sign to really avoid tech was that 8/21 cross on the weekly we got last week, look at this nasty followup this week. We’ve had 3 previous 8/21 crosses this decade and all led to a bad move down, to think this wouldn’t be the same would be silly.
Just relax, these things happen, we always get through them, periods of weakness are common but as long as you don’t overdo things in those periods, you are fine, you will take part in the eventual upside. Ignore all those deep dives on fundamentals and valuations, that is all meaningless, price action is truth. Since the beginning of time, the market has always had rough patches and we always end up higher, they shouldn’t really concern you they’re never the end of the world. It’s about identifying when they happen which always starts with a move under the 21 ema and adjusting your positing so you don’t get wiped out with short term trades going to zero. Markets move on what everyone sees in these same charts, you can either accept it or fight it. Go back to the end of November when I posted about the hanging man on the monthly chart here and look at how far the market has fallen since. That’s the beauty of charts, they show you the truth, and you can embrace what we’ve seen historically after those candles or you can try to be a hero.
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