3/21/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead
The SPY just wrapped up a nasty week with a move down to test the 50 week(yellow line) for the first time since the tariff fiasco last year. We are also getting that 8/21 bearish cross down that we got on the QQQ last week here. This is nasty, there is alot of technical damage here that simply just takes time to repair. If we lose that 50 week level this week, the door is open to that 100 week just over 100.
The QQQ had a perfect continuation down and that’s what I was looking for with what I said last friday that it was time to be worried. I wish I had the guts to short things because you can see this in the charts but I have PTSD from all the fake pumps we always get in the market that I just try to stick to the long side and reposition myself when things get weak for a little because Trump is the type of guy who can tweet something at any moment and rip the market.
With that said, if you look at the last 3 bearish cross downs we have had: Covid in 2020, the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, and the 2025 Tariff Tantrum in 2 of those cases we had very quick solutions. During covid we threw money at everyone and everything and instantly saved stocks before we had a solution for the virus. In 2025, after the market got so painful in under 10 days, Trump completely reversed course on his policies. In 2022 there was simply nothing the United States could do and it was a painful multi month drawdown. This situation right now to me is more 2022 than it is 2020 or 2025 because I simply do not see how the United States can wiggle out of this one. The market is turning down because it doesn’t see a quick solution to this and now we’re pricing in some heavy inflation a few months out, so the market is sniffing out a giant mess ahead of us where the fed may not even be able to cut rates like Trump keeps saying he wants. Then you have the second order effects of rates not being cut hurting housing and car sales or higher oil prices hurting the travel industry. There are so many things impacted by this going from a weekend bombing to a full blown war 3 weeks later.
If Trump backs off right now you have 2 major issues, the Iranian regime is still in charge and there is nothing saying Hormuz goes back to normal right away. We have set Iran back years in terms of capabilities, but if the big fear, which the US and Israel said, was Iran having nukes, without completely removing the regime which would be a long war, they will just rebuild and we will be right back here in 10 years again. As for Hormuz there is no activity right now, ships cannot get through, ships cannot get insured, and that is 20% of the world’s oil supply and other critical things. The only solution I can even think of is some deal where we stop bombing Iran in exchange they agree to stop attacking ships in Hormuz but a deal like that to me would be considered a major loss for the US because it would show Iran basically economically strangled the US into submission with a declining stock market and high oil prices forcing us to make a deal to get that to stop. Would Trump accept that? I definitely don’t think he would but I don’t see what other choice he has at this moment because all Iran has to do to “win” is hunker down, continue taking the bombing, and as long as they can cause enough havoc in the strait to hit our economy, they are are “winning”.
This weeks best idea is a name going through a buyout right now, names like this can save you in these bear markets. The reason I did so well back in 2022 was I shifted my focus to Twitter and its buyout in the midst of the market meltdown. We have another opportunity here to hideout in a name that has pretty significant upside of just over 20% if the deal can close. We’re going to look at some options on how to play this and hideout in the name the next few months.
