3/2/26 Recap

The SPY opened up below the 100 day today and his so far recovered. This is still below most of the key moving averages and very weak. Interest rates are rising today and that is something Trump does not want. How long this conflict goes on will change the gamut of outcomes. Trump and Bessent have been clamoring for over a year about how they want low rates to unlock housing, a prolonged middle east conflict spiking oil which would boost inflation is not going to accomplish that goal and with mid terms coming up it would almost be a death sentence for inflation to ramp here. The market is still in limbo really until it has more clarity on timeframes of this operation they’re conducting.

The QQQ remains a mess, this is under every moving average but the 200 day and remains in this bear flag. We’re seeing a nice dip buy so far today but again if inflation ramps, all tech names got killed in 2022 when that happened so buying the dip right here you’re basically banking on this being a short conflict where inflation remains in check because oil prices cool down quickly. My guess is this will not be a short term conflict and we will have issues ahead.

Top Gainers From Friday’s Recap

My Open Book