3/23/26 Recap
The SPY ripped right back through the 200 day so far in this session on the tweet this morning from President Trump saying he would stop bombing Iran and they would be working on a deal for the next 5 days. We have since rejected that move and oil fell 10% initially while recovering a bit since. Look if we’re objective here, Trump gave them a 48 hour deadline on Saturday, my guess is they did not agree to things and he extended the deadline because his threat of hitting their infrastructure would have taken the war to a level nobody wants where they’d hit other gulf states infrastructure in retaliation. Maybe they are working on a deal, but don’t forget friday Trump said there is nobody to talk to because they’re all dead and now we’re negotiating with someone? I don’t see it because you’re not getting regime change on a deal and from what Israel has said, this time, they want regime change. Whatever it is, this is a nice relief rally as everyone prices in a deal is coming in 5 days. If a deal does not come, we have issues when futures open sunday night. Baby steps here, first we crossed the 200 day, next we need to reclaim that 8 ema overhead, we have not closed over the 8 ema in nearly a month look at that dark blue line below. In a downtrend, this is textbook with constant 8 rejections of key moving averages above.
On a longer term basis, today is nothing meaningful, we’re still below the 21 week on the SPY for the 4th straight week and until we recover that light blue line, this is a downtrend plain and simple. I would not rush out and buy things until you see that reclaimed on a weekly close.
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