3/25/26 Recap
The SPY has so far rejected the 8 ema, again. If we’re objective here, the market isn’t really buying these ceasefire deal Trump is telling us we’re getting, at least for now. If it were, we would have cleanly gapped over the 200 day above as investors look past all this and into a potential rebound in markets. The fact we remain under not only the 200 day but the short term barometer, the 8 ema, is telling you the market for the moment is not buying this ceasefire. Oil also sold off hard initially but has has rallied to down only 2% down as it too is not buying this ceasefire.
Look you have to accept the reality that this may not be a quick V shaped moved like we always get on every decent selloff, this is a real nasty situation and Iran doesn’t have the same objectives we do with this war. 2 days in a row Trump has tried to pump this market and it just cannot reclaim key levels. For us a win is militarily overwhelming them while not destroying our economy, for Israel it is complete regime change, while a win for Iran is simply hanging on to decimate our economy through inflation, weak markets, and high oil prices. I still fail to see how we get real regime change in a timeframe that doesn’t ruin our economy. Iran is negotiating from a position of strength right now because they see how them just holding on and retaliating is impacting all the markets that affect us. In my opinion, they can endure the bombing alot longer than we can withstand high oil prices and weak stock markets impacting the consumer in the United States especially into a midterm year. You have to remember the bulk of our economy is spending from the top 20%, sustained weak markets really hurt the wealth effect and impact the spending of those people. So we’ll see how these negotiations go, but as of now, don’t get complacent because charts are telling you this is nowhere near over. To me, the war is over when we reclaim the 21 ema, the light blue line, when and where I don’t know, but when we reclaim it, that is when the market will feel things are under control.
Top Gainers From Yesterday’s Recap
Someone asked me last week what the point of this was and it simply is something a few people requested. If you look below, I flagged unusual bullish activity in all these names below, look how many are up big less than 24 hours later. 5 of them are up over 10%? 18 of the 150 trades I flagged yesterday are up over 4% a day later, this is just showing you that these unusual trades I flag sometimes work out very quickly. You have to remember there’s countless options trades daily and I’m flagging just a very small percentage of them based on parameters I set. To see this many work in such a short timeframe just shows you the alpha of these firms placing these trades. These are very calculated bets being made in the options markets.
My Open Book
