3/26/25 Recap

The SPY is breaking back down below the 21 ema and the 200 day. This isn’t what bulls want to see but I mentioned in yesterday’s recap that something felt off with how VIX futures kept rising into the green day. It’s just the reality of the next few sessions until April 2nd passes, the market hates uncertainty and Trump loves to create it. Until he gives us a clear direction on tariffs we’re going to continue to see these tantrums in the market and the big loser is always going to be tech stocks when that happens.

The chart to watch right now is oil, it is finally breaking over 70 and going for a breakout. Will it happen? Oil names have all been trading well the last few sessions with XOM,CVX leading the XLE higher. Most people are underweight oil, but this is probably the time you want to be trying to scale in with short puts and I sold some for next week down below in my book.

Recent Trades

EXE - Go back to December 19th when I posted this trade and said it was the oddest one I saw that day with the huge put sale to finance the call buys. At the time EXE was 94.xx and it is at 110.xx today. Not much has worked in the market since then but these nat gas names have been on fire and this has returned 20%+ since but this player absolutely nailed the bottom on one of the few names thats worked to this degree.

My Open Book