3/26/26 Recap

The SPY continues to languish below the 8 ema and seems to be forming another bear flag at this moment. Now you have issues with the 50 day, yellow line, sloping down and now without a sharp move up we are maybe 3-4 weeks away from a 50/200 cross down which would be a major technical negative. Let’s hope this war is resolved very quickly like a week or so, somehow, and we can avoid the longer term technical damage that seems to be unfolding. We’re now going to have our 6th straight close below the 200 day and oil remaining bid is putting serious pressure on equities. There isn’t much to say this is just a downtrend. When I always mention the 21 ema as your barometer of anything, remember this, sure maybe 90% of the time when we lose the 21 ema nothing happens, but 100% of big selloffs begin with losing the 21 ema. What I mean is if you always de-risk below there you won’t get caught up in a messy move on any ticker. Bulls would like to see 644.72 hold here or we’re getting much lower levels

On a weekly we are entering a major danger zone where we risk losing the 50 week tomorrow with a nasty close. If we do then we’ve opened pandora’s box to nearly 600 and that 100 week below. This whole situation is such a mess now and I really don’t know what else to say, there is just a major lack of confidence in how well things are going and the charts are just a reflection of that selling.

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