3/27/25 Recap

Just a quick memo I’m attaching a link to the database open till monday today. I won’t be writing a recap tomorrow because I’m traveling but I will be updating the database all throughout the flight. So the trades will be there just no recap. So if you open the link during the day you should be able to see the trades as I update them.

The SPY continues to trade weak opening below the 8 ema today, attempting to rise above it but rejecting lower. On the lower end of things we bounced right off that 565.15 level that was the previous breakout in 2024, very methodical buying and selling, nothing egregious. Semis continue to weigh heavily on the market with the SMH hit hard. I don’t know how to think about next week, obviously when you have something like the tariffs everyone knows about you always get a “priced in” move higher but this market continues to trade below all moving averages and I guess you could say a series of higher lows is forming going back to March 14th. I think this is just going to be a chop fest for a while, we do have earnings season coming up in a few weeks which could clear up some questions but for now with Trump and his tariffs potentially being implemented next week there is just too much uncertainty to make longer term bets.

Recent Trades

DLTR - In monday’s recap here I noted these weekly Dollar Tree calls at 75. This was an interesting one because the player was directionally right, but the trade did not work. The stock is up 10% today to almost 76 but the calls are down and based on today’s volume it appears the player sold for a loss. This is a good example of why playing with shares is sometimes the better option, yes the risk isn’t defined if you’re wrong but in the chance you’re right but not right enough, you still could have profited in this case almost $6 per share. All this option flow is more directionally right than its not and this was a good lesson in how you can be right and still be wrong.

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