3/30/26 Recap

The SPY is forming an inside day on a meaningless bounce here. The 8 ema(dark blue) is still overhead and sloping down with the 21 and 50. Crude is also up 4% right now pressuring everything as the vix remains over 30. Right now everything in the market hinges on this April 6 deadline Trump gave Iran. If we can make a deal before next monday we could be saved and if we don’t, it sounds like Trump has no choice but to hit them hard where they’ve promised to retaliate very harshly vs our allies. You can imagine the market wouldn’t like it. If we can’t make a deal our next best bet is another extension. Other than that, the economic data really isn’t that big of a focus right now as it is all on this potential deal. From a technical standpoint, this is ugly, we’re under the 200 day, we haven’t closed over the short term 8 ema barometer since late February right before the war began. The market is not in any way showing any signs of bottoming at the moment. For that to happen you need to see at least 1 reclaim of the 8 ema as a start.

A big red flag for investors today should be the SMH losing the 21 week. This has been our market leader for years. This is all your big chip names and it is losing a major level meaning weakness ahead for a while in NVDA,TSM,AVGO,MU, and ASML as the top 5 holdings. I know the AI boom is in full swing but it doesn’t matter what is going on, the charts are the charts and this is breaking down and NVDA has been breaking down for a while now. This is not the time for you to be a hero and go long any chip names. If you want to sell puts lower and wait, fine, but you shouldn’t expect much from here until this is back over the 21 week.

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