3/31/26 Recap

The SPY still remains under the 8 ema even with this massive pump today. In the last 24 hours we’ve gotten some commentary from Trump that is leading many to think we are ending this excursion and going home soon. Yesterday he said Hormuz being open wasn’t important to him and this morning he posted on Truth Social telling Europe to go get their own oil. It sounds like he may leave without sending in troops and the market is reacting favorably so far but still no big technical levels reclaimed. We are really oversold so even a bounce like this isn’t much to get excited about. We still have the monday April 6 deadline he set last week as our big day so I wouldn’t get too excited till that passes because he still very well could launch a ground invasion still. The market is though telling him that it would prefer it if he did not escalate things with these bounces on him potentially backing off. We shall see. The 50 day(yellow line) is starting to slope down hard and we’re probably 2 weeks or so away from a death cross, 50/200, on the overall market unless we get a really sharp rally quickly. The VIX is also calming down a little just under 28 now which is nice to see but still very elevated vs where we want it to be, sub 15.

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