3/4/25 Recap

The SPY gapped lower and nearly tested the 200 day. It’s putting in a hammer right now and trying to stop the bleeding. The reality is that now you have the 8 and 21 ema sloping down. You have the 50 beginning to curl lower and all of that is very bad news. What happens is these moving average become resistance on any moves up. This isn’t going to be easy here, this sort of technical damage is not quick or easy to repair. We had awful warnings and guidance from Target today centered around tariffs and uncertainty, the market hates uncertainty and that is down 5%. We also have a couple big data points left this week starting with ISM tomorrow.

The bounce today came as TLT stalled at the 200 day. It’s tried to breakthrough 2 days in a row and hasn’t been able to, the 8 ema is catching up and the reality is nothing moves up in a straight line. Now as the 8 and 21 catch up, TLT is consolidating to make a push through that 200 as rates hopefully go lower. Regarding rates, Secretary Bessent was on tv this morning reiterating his stance that his goal is to push rates lower. He has mentioned this stance repeatedly recently saying he wants to “unlock” the housing market and the reality is the longer these equities remain weak, the more pressure there is to force rates lower. This seems like the likely path we are on right now.

Recent Trades

GMAB - Up 2% today and 6% since I flagged it in the 2/19 recap here . This was a weird risk reversal on GMAB and it has performed well since the rest of the market has been in complete shambles.

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