3/4/26 Recap

The SPY gapped back up over the 100 day today and got stonewalled at the 21 ema this morning. For the moment it is barely reclaiming the 8 ema, this is progress. Bulls would like to see this power over and reclaim the 21 ema right overhead before discussing the end of the chaos. The war seems to be going as planned for Trump and now its a matter of are we really going to oversee a regime change which would take a very very long time or does he strike a deal with the current regime to where they remain in power and we back off without more chaos to the market. He previously said he wanted a new regime so we will see. Today the market is rallying a little on a rumor that the Iranians may be open to negotiations and this is our new reality, we’re going to be in a back and forth on potential ends to this conflict for a while. The more pressing issue is Strait of Hormuz traffic is down 92% and drones hit another ship today and we have to get that truly resolved quickly before we face major negative issues from that

The QQQ is trying to reclaim the 21 ema today, its early but tech has been our big laggard all year and today you’re seeing real leadership in Amazon mostly on the new ARR numbers we’re seeing from Anthropic and their stake in it. This has been a really nice recovery in tech after back to back days of the Korean market being crushed but the read to our tech market has been fairly muted. We’re seeing a real bottom forming in the IGV where it’s now green 5 sessions in a row after the fear from Citrini sent it spiraling last week.

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