3/9 Recap. Tomorrow Is Going To Be Big.

I wanted to get this out early enough to where you all had time to decide on what you wanted to do into tomorrow. Let’s start with yesterday’s recap. I mentioned in my highlights that there was some serious put buying going on in the KRE and small banks

Of course we got the news that SI was insolvent before, then the nightmare from SIVB which is down 50% today and the KRE, which is an ETF, is down 7.25% as I type this. What a complete disaster and look at many of those names above. I highlighted many more put buys today in those banks down below but it looks like there is panic/contagion going on in the space.

We also had ETSY yesterday with a very weird buy of 107/100 weekly put spreads I noted yesterday and what made that trade odd was that there was no catalyst to push the name down so much so quick, but alas, this morning we got the analyst downgrade at ETSY is below 107 as I type this. With a disaster tomorrow, it could very well trade below 100. The point of all this is the value of the option flows I post daily, not every trade works, and I don’t take every trade, but when I note oddities, it is for a reason and those small cap banks yesterday were warning something was coming.

The overall market isn’t looking too hot right now, the SPY is forming this bearish engulfing candle on the weekly and looks like it wants to break the downtrend, it may and it may not. I bought some really cheap protection today that we’ll discuss down below, it was a cheap hedge heading into tomorrow and while I typically don’t use hedges like it, we’re at such a critical juncture I had to. So just remember I don’t write recaps on Friday, I do a weekend recap instead, if the market is closing below that trendline below tomorrow, I would suggest lightening up quite a bit because it would be a major flip of trend that we haven’t seen in almost half a year.

Trends

This has been going well here from some of the feedback I’ve been getting. So if you have anything else you want me to add/change just let me know.

2 Week Trends