3/9/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY closed up friday with a big bounce after opening below the 200 day, we still have not had a close below the 200 since 11/1/2023. While the technicals do not look good right now, we keep getting saved right where buyers should step in. This coming week will be a big test, do we begin to build and reclaim some moving averages or will the weakness persist? We also have CPI this week on Wednesday.

On a longer term basis we had out first close below the 21 ema on a weekly basis since that same time period in late 2023. You can see that was also the last time we touched the 50 week which is right around where we touched friday. At that time we had 1 close below the 50 week and rallied, we did however close below the 21 week multiple times as you can see in what I highlighted. 6 closes below the 21 week followed, will it be similar this time? I don’t know but I’m tempted to say technical damage won’t be quick to repair after this long of a streak. A few week period of weakness lines up with the April 2nd tariff date. Maybe we get a reprieve by then?

This weeks best idea is one of the few names that really outperformed the last few weeks in the weakness. I have a great way to play some serious potential here using an unbalanced risk reversal while getting paid to wait for the potential multi year upside breakout to unfold.