4/12 Recap. 5% Inflation Is Now Bullish!

First off, I would like to apologize for yesterday, I don’t know what happened with Substack but they have yet to reply to my support email. From what I understand the post was not showing images in the app yesterday but they worked in the email and on the web. Then I got word that this morning the web was also not working. I assume Substack was having issues with their “Notes” rollout yesterday, but regardless I apologize for whatever it was, I wish I was able to fix it. Today, if for any reason there is an issue try the other 2 options first and if it doesn’t work just email me and I will copy/paste this all for you.

The 3 options are

1. Email

2. Substack App

3. The web @ jamesbulltard.substack.com

What a day, we open with some pretty bad inflation data and follow up with not only a Green Day but a call from Goldman Sachs that the fed will pause in June. Last I checked, 5% inflation was nowhere near the stated target of 2% but alas here we are. The market continues to just drift along without a worry in the world. From a technical standpoint it is still bullish from now but you have to believe starting with bank earnings Friday that we are going to see some pretty bad numbers combined with some suboptimal outlooks. While I am just a trend follower, I don’t see how any of these companies are going to post impressive outlooks. Even Apple, the biggest company in this country, had a 40% plunge in their MAC shipments recently. Everything continues to be “priced in” and forward looking for years. This is why I always joke about fundamentals not mattering and price being all that pays. The bears to this point haven’t been wrong about the fundamentals, they’ve only been wrong about the price, and in the end, that is all that matters.

The SPY tested the 8 ema today and we bought up again. As I’ve been saying for days now, it’s really hard to be bearish with this price action when every microdip is swiftly bought right back up. Until the bears make a decisive move below the trend, this is just the reality of the market. An optimistic would look below and see an inverse head and shoulders forming while a pessimist would say that’s a lower high from the February base. Both are scenarios for now, the only people winning in all this chop are the put sellers as the sideways moves pay out for them.

Trends

A couple new names emerged in the 1 week trends today, MANU and MDT. MANU had the news yesterday of round 3 of bidding taking place, with MDT you have a medical devices leader that is just flat out cheap with a decent yield. This name hasn’t done anything in forever and they’re finally circling around it. Very few actually cheap high quality names around these days and this is one. CCJ is another here in the 2 week that continues to see bullish flows as the top name in the Uranium ETF. Another under the radar but high quality name. ALLY remains the most bearish name in here on every timeframe and today it is getting rejected at a fairly key spot.

1 Week