4/12/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY just closed back over the 21 week for the first time since we broke it when the war began. Look at this uptrend we were in from the pivot on tariffs last April and how we broke that light blue line when this war began and now we’re starting a new uptrend. The question is will it last? It seems like negotiations on Pakistan are not going well this weekend as reports show us at an impasse, will we work through it? I hope so, but with these things nobody really ever knows, for the moment, the charts are bullish because people are speculating we are done with the war but if we end up going back into Iran, this will have been a massive headfake. The good news is right now you have your line in the sand and you can press things but if we fall back below that 21 week you can just move aside again.

This week’s best idea is a sub $5B chemical name that saw a massive risk reversal placed yesterday afternoon and we’re going to take a look. They put this trade on for exactly $0 and when someone is looking to take on nearly $150m of stock on a name this small while using the premium to swing at calls, you want to take note.