4/1/25 Recap

Did we double bottom yesterday? For now it appears the answer is yes. Tomorrow is tariff day and while we do remain well below the key moving averages I did put some longs on today but I will have a tight stop with a close below yesterday lows. That’s all you can do if you’re trying to pick a bottom, you look for something like this double bottom and go long with the notion that you know where you’re cutting your losses, for me it is below that 546.87 level. Could we be past the worst? It’s possible, its possible this tariff stuff escalates into us launching nukes at Europe too, who knows whats coming, I’m just looking at the chart and that 550 level has held twice so I’m taking a shot. Take a look around the market today, the risk on stuff is running: ARKK, Bitcoin, Tesla, and DJT. That isn’t really what happens when markets are in panic. So keep an open mind that price action is truth and all the headlines are just noise.

My Open Book

I have alot to say here today. I put on alot of trades today, not much in the scope of things but about half my book. Why today? That double bottom yesterday gave me a little bit of confidence the worst may be behind us in these tech names that have been hammered. I have a 3% lower move to where I would stop out of things, so if I’m wrong, the losses should be somewhat mitigated. I also saw today things I hadn’t seen in a while like 50% OTM call buys on META or ATM put sales on AMZN. While I don’t believe in buying short term calls while the market is below the 21 ema what I saw in the call buying along with what names are leading today, I figured it was worth a shot. I even bought TSLA( NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE) and you know how much I hate Tesla. Look at it up 5% today, at the end of the day, Elon paid for Trump to be in office, his $300m and X collaboration sent Trump to the win. I do think someway, somehow although Tesla should be $20-30, it will get some epic pump under Trump, again. So let’s talk about what I added.