4/1/26 Recap

I wanted to get this out early but was waiting for a little more of the days action before commenting. The SPY closed yesterday over the 8 ema for the first time in a month, that was your risk on signal, now you can use a stop of a close below that 8 ema to manage your risk. Today was a followthrough as we all await the big speech from Trump tonight. I would say until that passes do not add anything you’re worried about short term. He can send this market in a myriad of directions. He could say we’re having a ground invasion and we plunge or he could say we’ve done enough and are leaving and we rally. There is really nothing anyone can do about a binary event like that. It’s clearly a big deal because every tv station is cutting to it so take some risk off today after this little rally if you are concerned. You’re getting some serious risk on moves in the hot tech names of the quarter like SNDK,MU, and INTC before this big speech and I don’t really know how to think about that.

On a longer term look we just put in a bearish engulfing candle on the quarterly chart, that is not ideal. Last time we did that was first quarter 2025 as you can see below and it followed up with a big move down to nearly the 21 quarter before bouncing. Will we see a repeat here? I don’t know but the chart is what it is and they form by the quarter opening higher than the previous quarter and closing below the entire body of the previous quarter meaning sellers took control. I would keep my eye this quarter on 618.81 as that is the 8 quarter and we have not closed below that since the 2022 recession. Any close below there would be a big sign to get out.

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