4/14/25 Recap

We got the big gap up but have mostly faded it now with the QQQ and IWM going red already. That is healthy I mentioned yesterday you wanted to go long after the gap fill if you weren’t long. The current administration is doing an awful job at communicating what is coming and markets are just not going to reward us until they have clarity. We get a headline over the weekend about exemptions then we get Lutnick on sunday morning talk shows refuting it followed by the President himself muddying waters even more later in the day with a post on social media. Trust and confidence are central to any market and what made the United States markets the best in the world, aside from having the best companies, was the confidence you always knew what was coming. We just do not have that right now. Today Trump speaks twice, once right now and once at 3 pm. You never had to worry what was coming when Biden spoke and now you have to be fully invested in any Trump speech because it can and will move markets. Janet Yellen actually just spoke and said Trump was “Eroding trust in the US and Dollar assets” and it’s hard to disagree with her because it is more difficult than ever as an investor to trust you know what is coming next week or next month.

From a technical standpoint, we keep rejecting the 21 ema, we almost touched it today and reversed lower, until we break above it, this is still a downtrend and has been for a while. You can target put sales at those recent lows of 481.80 and close them for a loss on a break below that. Let’s see where we are after the second Trump speech of the day because we just sold off on the first one.

Recent Trades

PLD - Last week I flagged these risk reversals on this REIT here on 4/9 and names like this do not really move much but this is up 10% in 4 sessions since and rates didn’t even really decline, these are usually rate sensitive names but wow what a payout on this risk reversal. I would close this if you’re still here you can’t ask for more from a 4 day move in a non tech stock.

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