4/15 Recap

We opened strong and got a nasty intraday reversal. Alot of it begin shortly after some news dropped that Israel would be retaliating vs Iran. Alot of this weekend was spend with people saying the attack from Iran was a one time thing and it would see no retaliation. That doesn’t seem to be the case now and the market did not like it. Yields also are breaking out and near 4.7% now. This all goes with what I wrote you all on Saturday, the SPY broke trend, the how or why, that stuff really does not matter, they were selling this thing before all this weekend stuff happened and now we’re just seeing a continuation of a breakdown. That’s it. I hope you all listened and took some short term things off in that morning pop today. More than ever you’re going to have to focus on names showing relative strength, the era of everything goes up is over for the time being.

The SPY went up and rejected right at the 21 ema and now is trying to be saved at the 50 day. The reality is when you’re in a downtrend, this is classic action, you try for higher, reject and move lower. Now the moving averages begin sloping down and you face the weakness we’re seeing. Again, until the megacaps report next week, stocks are at the mercy of sellers for the next few sessions. Personally, I wouldn’t even think about adding anything here until we see markets settle and at least the 8 ema reclaimed on the SPY.

Make no mistake last week was no coincidence with all those war calls being bought everyday before the weekend escalation. Look at today LMT,NOC,GD,HII all green in this weak tape. Just like metals were being loaded a month back. The same thing we’ve seen forever, the options players are in the right names before they move. You see the option flow become overwhelming in a sector, you probably want to be in those names.

Yields keep pushing up with TNX over 46 up 15% from early March. I saw tons of call sales on TLT today and a few put buys in size, they’re looking for no upside in TLT the rest of this year which fits along with the no rate cut narrative I said seemed likely now.

Trends

I always get questions about this stuff but there isn’t much to say, this is just the net score of the bullish/bearish trades I note. The best place to utilize these trends is in the app below, you can click and see the actual trades being placed and follow however you please. There really isn’t much to say other than the trends are usually on point in terms of direction, look on the bearish side, that GL continues lower down another 6% today and even Tesla has been the weakest big name in the market all year and they keep buying puts on it. I’ve always told you my best advice is take the bullish directional names you see and sell puts lower.

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it expires at the open tomorrow for everyone not in the live trading. I will have the rest of the day’s action added in by the afternoon.