4/15/25 Recap

The SPY is sandwiched between the 8 and 21 ema right now. We await President Trump to speak today at 3:30 right before the close to hear more about the ongoing tariff situation. As you will notice below, now we have a pretty clear death cross on the SPY. Last night Secretary Bessent mentioned having a whole array of tools at his disposal of Powell was not willing to help out with rates soon. Overall we’re not looking terrible right now and I’m sure the moment we have more answers on tariffs we will bounce, but today we were rolling along and then had Europe say they expected the tariffs to stick for longer than hoped. The market sold off instantly. We’re just in this daily routine of getting constantly changing new takes on what is happening with global trade and markets do not like the uncertainty.

While the term death cross is ominous and usually signals a short term downtrend, historically speaking it isn’t the end of the world and this chart below was posted in the community discord showing that on average a year later markets are up decently with a 60% probability they’re green 3 months later. Maybe today Trump answers some questions and clears up some things so we can move up over that 21 ema once and for all. The vix at this moment is declining materially, tomorrow morning is Vixpiration and markets don’t have that fear they had a week back with the vix over 50.

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