4/15/26 Recap

The SPY is basically back to all time highs in 6 sessions since the ceasefire. Incredible really, the whole move down was due to the war and we fully reversed it with a pause, lets all hope we do not restart this conflict when the deadline passes. We’re a bit extended here as the 21 ema is barely over 670 but with earnings season kicking off we’re a powederkeg that can go much higher if we can press over 697.84 and build above it. We need to go sideways a bit and let these moving averages catch up, going up 5% in 6 sessions is a bit overdone.

I don’t know the bear case right now other than war coming back, the megacaps comprising the bulk of the market are all printing money at obscene clips and I think that’s where people get markets wrong. The market isn’t the economy and the real economy can be struggling but if 40% of the market is the 7 megacaps and things are operationally going well there, the market can go much higher and that is the case right now. Study this chart below and burn it into your brain how weak markets sometimes get under the 21 ema and why I use that as my barometer. Yes 90% of moves under the 21 are reclaimed quickly, but 10% lead to prolonged moves down and if you’re disciplined you can literally just go to cash under the 21 ema and everytime we reclaim it go long again. Look at how we capped over the 21 ema on the ceasefire last week and its been 6 days of sustained run since so the point is you miss very little on the overall market if you’re disciplined. With individual names its tougher because you have things like Intel that rallied 60% in 2 weeks but for the overall market, discipline won’t hurt you too much, you missed a 2% move up to get confirmation of a new uptrend last week.

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