4/16/25 Recap

Small memo before I get into it, tomorrow I will update the database but I won’t be sending a recap, we will be traveling for Easter. The link below will be up until monday morning and sunday I will still send out the weekend post.

The SPY opened below the 8 ema today and we have Chairman Powell speaking shortly. Yesterday afterhours Nvidia took a 1 time charge of over $5B after they drew the ire of President Trump who banned them from selling already watered down chips to China. I think the reality of the situation is this Trump vs China tariff situation is going to extended alot further than anyone imagined. It’s hard to believe a few months back the talk was President Trump would be great for business because of looser regulations and here we are where almost every company is frozen because it has no idea what new tariff he’s going to slap on in the coming days. I’ve mentioned previously I thought this would take 6 months at least before we got clarity just because we’d need to see 2 quarters before companies could really tell us what was coming. Even from friday to now, we’ve flipflopped so much on what is coming that Apple has completely reversed than enormous open it had monday morning.

This is a time to survive, you really cannot be using short term calls, you can use the option data for direction but try to stick to commons, it has unfortunately become our reality where one day the President says one thing and the next day he completely goes in another direction. Even leaps, you really cannot use them in this environment until things settle down. You just have to survive this madness for the time being. I think what you’re seeing is just multiple compression. So much foreign money is exiting our market, great companies are still great, but maybe the multiple doesn’t stay at 35x, maybe it falls to 25x and maybe our overall market falls from 20x to 16x. Whatever it is, our companies just cannot operate in this environment and investors are just not willing to pay a premium for those same companies anymore like they did 6 months ago when they were paying that premium for safety. We’ve almost become like China in the sense that now our Government is throwing out these new regulations and rules almost daily, look at the multiple on China stocks? They’ve been cheap forever because that isn’t what investors want to be involved with and now you’re starting to see the same awful principles here of the government telling companies how to do business. Just a terrible situation all around for now.

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