4/17/26 Recap

The SPY continues to make new highs, this is an all time move unfolding. Today it was on rumors the war may actually be over as we may pay Iran $20B for their uranium. The meeting in Pakistan this weekend should reveal alot more but $20B seems like a trivial amount of money for not letting a terrorist regime have nuclear weapons. For reference NVDA made over $40b last quarter alone. Whatever it is, oil is falling for now, the VIX is dropping and we continue to extend further away from the 200 day. We need to cool off somewhere and let these moving averages catch up, this is the index, not a penny stock, moves like this are not commonplace. Look at the RSI we went from max oversold to max overbought in 2.5 weeks. This is all good news, I just wouldn’t be putting on new positions here until the moving averages catch up.

Look at something like MEOH that I wrote up last weekend, now that the war may be over that is killed down 9% today. Here is the thing with that big trade last week, that player executed it for $0 if you remember they sold puts at 45 and 40 while using the proceeds to buy calls. A trade like that highlights what I try to show you everyday that every trade you place needs to be for free or a credit because in the event you’re wrong, every stock is a buy at some level and in the case of MEOH it was 48 before the war, buying 1.5M shares at 45 and 40 would be nice for that player so while -9% looks bad today, it isn’t that bad because it would need to fall another 15%+ for that person to take assignment. Once you understand why its so important to make every trade in your favor, you will see the market in a new light. Being wrong and not losing a ton of money is a lifehack.

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