4/19 Recap. It's Time To Be Cautious.

What a run we’ve had, seemingly every dip is bought right up, this is strength beyond anything we should be having based on all the data coming in. With that said, the VIX is 16.xx, this isn’t the spot you add new longs. Ideally you put on longs with the VIX north of 30 and you sell out of everything down here. For me, until the current uptrend breaks, I am in, but this is getting to be really silly. A VIX of 16 is basically saying the best of times are ahead and we know that isn’t true. Every datapoint is showing people are struggling more than ever to pay bills, buy food, auto sales are down, home sales are down, whatever metric you want to look at isn’t bullish. This is why I always joke about stocks having nothing to do with economic data because if that stuff actually mattered, we would be far lower.

Every dip off that 8 ema in the SPY is bought, until that trend changes, there isn’t much to think about, you remain long. As I’ve said for a while now, as long as we remain over that white line below, there isn’t anything to be short. When the trend breaks, then we re-evaluate. I will say Big Tech has had a phenomenal run and I’m not sure if that’s the place to be going forward with all the warnings we’ve seen from Apple,Tesla, and others. Contrary to popular belief, there are tons of other stocks in the market that are high quality and those can work in an environment where tech doesn’t.

Today we have Tesla reporting and that could change our course, being one of the largest companies in our markets, a bad report could send us lower. Of course Tesla has cut prices 6 times this year, again this morning, and nothing ever seems to matter, it’s always bullish even though gross margins won’t be pretty today or the fact they skipped the Shanghai Auto Show recently, one of the largest in the world, nothing can faze the bulls. Let us see what awaits us.

Trends

Short term it appears CVE has been the most bullish name this week, that has never happened before where I make a name my best idea and the following week it sees a ton of bullish activity. I guess others saw what I was seeing in the charts and flows. SCHW up another 3% today and it remains a top trending name on all timeframes. CTLT is a name I don’t know well but it’s picking up momentum in here recently. On the bearish side, FOUR saw 4 very bearish trades today that I will go over below, interesting action.

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Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out

123 Trades To Discuss Today