4/22/25 Recap

The SPY is stuck under the 8 ema after a decent bounce today. Still nothing significant here so do not get complacent about the bounce today, a significant move would see us at least reclaim the 8 ema, if we do that by the end of the day, then you can start to be slightly bullish. Rumors are trade deals are coming shortly possibly with Vietnam. I think the market is so hungry to see progress that it is getting excited but all these deals do not mean much unless we come to agreement with China. This bounce could be the start of something but without further confirmation through reclaiming bigger moving averages, we cannot assume anything. Today we have our first megacap report in Tesla, we all know the numbers will be bad but nobody really cares about the numbers it seems and all eyes are on the guidance for Cybercab and Optimus. If there are any material delays the stock may not like it, Cybercab was slated for June release so let’s see where it goes. For the first time in a while today I would say I saw risk on trades ie biotech put sales, risk reversals, etc. Those aren’t things you put on when you see more near term downside so we may have a momentary pause in the selloff. We even saw Gold flip red another sign the risks are calming in the market.

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