4/22/26 Recap

The SPY is flagging as the moving averages race higher. This is healthy action after a big move up like we had. I’d like to see us actually touch the 8 ema in the next 2-3 sessions and see us bounce of it and push higher. Today is our first megacap report with Tesla after the bell. Things are mostly looking good now. We got another extension on the ceasefire today of 3-5 days from Trump and for the time being the market is pricing in an end to this conflict with the vix at 19 now. Right now you’re seeing alot of the small cap names ripping hard which is not what you’d see in an environment where people were worried about the war restarting.

One caution flag is the fact RSP is red and that means breadth is just not there as only tech is flying. The equal weight is not partaking today. Some of these tech moves the last week have been insane but its notable that RSP would be red when the Nasdaq is up over 300.

I also wanted to discuss a point with the data I log, and I honestly should be better about this because its pretty rare but look at something like NVTS. I highlighted this one last friday here.

It was sub $12 and saw a really weird call bought well over 100% OTM with the $27 calls in January bought for $1.30. NVTS is now up to $17.20 today and those January $27 calls are up nearly 4x in 5 days. For a long term trade, that is insane. The point here is you don’t see trades like that often, another one if you look in the database is VIAV and on 1/15 I flagged some December $35 calls with the stock at $17, sure enough here we are 3 months later and VIAV is $43.73. So just something to keep in the back of your head along with biotech put sales/risk reversals is that when you see a small cap name with some very far OTM calls being bought, you want to get long some commons or throw on a risk reversal because its rare to see and works out very well often.

Top Gainers From Yesterday’s Flow

Today was a big session, 10% of the names I flagged yesterday, 18 of 182, were up over 4% today. This is one of the more remarkable sessions I remember seeing in recent memory with 6 of the names going for double digits the next day.

My Open Book