4/23/26 Recap

The SPY is trying to emerge from this flag its been in for 5 day. The 8 ema is over 700 now and the 21 ema is racing to catch up. Things are looking great as we’ve quietly put the war on the backburner. We need things to stay this way and the market has told you for 3 weeks the war was over, the day we crossed that 200 day below with that that huge gap up. Even economic data hasn’t really mattered recently as the whole trade was just one big catchup after the 45 days of panic. I’d like to see that yellow line, the 50 day start to curl up soon to really confirm things but this rally is only 12 days old so it needs time. Price action is truth is what the chart below should tell you because we lingered under that 21 ema on the SPY from the time the war began, the day the ceasefire hit was the first day we turned on the otherside of it and we never looked back. I always tell you that’s the best barometer in the market and with this conflict it literally told you when it was over. These rallies lock out so many because so many think news is important, the chart is the chart, it doesn’t lie to you and its been 12 days since we touched the 8 ema that is an incredibly powerful rally but for the second straight down some caution flags are flashing with VIX up and oil up.

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