4/24/25 Recap

The SPY is back at that downtrend and trying to break above it. President Trump speaks here shortly and for the second day in a row we are testing over the 21 ema. The 21 day is probably the most important intermediate trendline and it would be a big character shift to have our second close over it in 2 months today, 538.27 is the level we’re looking for and we’re at 542.8. If we can break above that downtrend and close there, you have to think about closing up short positions and initiating longs no matter what narrative you think. Price action is truth and while this has been a rough 60 days with seemingly no progress on the trade war, if the downtrend breaks and we close above, you have to go long. It very well could reject here and turn lower, so keep an open mind, but we’re in a huge spot.

This is interesting price action considering China said this morning that they haven’t been in contact with us but rumors are floating around a trade deal with India is being finalized right now. We still are nearly 12% off highs in the market. Lots of growth names are breaking out today, another tell of a rotation back to growth vs defensives is the moves you’re seeing today in PG down 5% and PEP down 4%, those consumer staple names are defensive and Procter Gamble is down over 10% since mid March. Another anecdotal datapoint is I don’t think I’ve ever logged this many odd call buys before sending out a recap ever.

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