4/24/26 Recap

The SPY continues to consolidate flagging for 6 days now as the 8 ema has finally caught up. We touched it yesterday and bounced but the move was so sharp that the 21 ema is still over $20 lower. We just need time that’s all. The semi trade continues to carry the market while we await whatever the President decides to do with Iran over the weekend. Next week we’ve got most of the megacaps reporting and we will have alot more clarity on what’s next after that. Will we see capex increases? Will anyone surprise cut? Lots can change in a week.

As for what I’m sure many of you want to hear, Intel, let’s talk about today’s massive move. It is up 22% right now and breaking out of a monster 26 year base going back to the year 2000. We’ve all heard the p/e ratios, how far behind they are, etc and sure enough it didn’t matter. The stock is up 100% in the last month, the lows were 41 in the war selloff and looking at the database going back to January 1, it has a score that is nearly 2x the next biggest name, Amazon.

So when people ask me why I was all in, it was because I’d never seen a divergence like this in my data and I knew Intel was going much higher because if I don’t trust my own data, why should you? This isn’t my portfolio, I have a big book full of all the same boring stuff the rest of you do, this is my trading book you see here everyday and if I’m not confident enough to take a massive risk reversal and swing at a trade like this, then I’m wasting my time. This is why I tell you to separate your investments from your trades, you need to be able to freely think about trades without fear.

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