4/25/25 Recap

The SPY is finally breaking out, but on very low volume. Are the 2 months of pain over? From a technical standpoint, yes, but you can also have false breakouts and the volume here is not too inspiring. We have a weekend coming up and who knows what happens with Trump and China over that timeframe. So while this is encouraging, we’re going for back to back closes over the 21 ema for the first time in months, use tight stops in case we do pullback lower. Next week is a big one, most of the megacaps are reporting, Google reported last night, and those are the names that actually move the market so until next thursday passes and 6 of the big 7 have reported, it will be tough to get a read on what is really going on. Let’s all hope for some trade deals announced this weekend or progress with China at least. RSP which is the equal weight etf of the market is down .65% now vs green for the SPY so at this moment megacaps are most of what is seeing buying in the market today and their heavy weighting is holding the SPY up. Very light volume on the options today.

So speaking of all these option flows that I log, one of the best I’ve ever seen was today. This morning 10 minutes after the open as all the trades were being posted in the live room on the discord, a block of 1000 puts expiring next week at $30 on SMMT came in, 2 hours later it was halted and opened down 35% at $24 and the buyer of those made a fortune. Impeccable timing on that lucky trade.

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