4/26 Recap. We Await GDP Tomorrow Morning

The market bounced today, but hardly recovered that big spill we had yesterday. It could be argued that such a weak move so far when the 2nd biggest component in our markets MSFT is up 9% is actually not too good, we’re barely up .05% as I type this. This afternoon we have META earnings, tomorrow we have Amazon, and next week have Apple left to report. The numbers from MSFT really weren’t too impressive to me. You had 7% revenue growth which is pretty much flat inflation adjusted. Microsoft is fine, it’s just over 30x earnings for a company with flat real earnings is a bit much with a 5% FFR but whatever, none of that stuff actually matters, they buy what they buy.

Now heading into tomorrow we just got the Atlanta Fed revising down GDP

US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1: 1.1% (prev 2.5%)

We also have the QQQ now trading at the same level it was at a year ago with earnings down 30%, so price aside, stocks are more expensive than ever, but everyone seems to be in the same complacency camp of 2023 is bad, we know, let’s look forward. That’s fine but what if 2024 is bad as well? The revisions are only starting.

The market just broke down from the rising wedge it has been in since early March. You can see all the short averages curling down and 3950 looks like a natural spot with that gap below. Could it change with GDP tomorrow? Sure. For now this doesn’t look like a chart you want to be long.

If you look at the SPY you can see even today, we re-tested the breakdown of the October 2022 lows and rejected it thus far. That is what is supposed to happen when support turns into resistance.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out

So I had a few requesting the size on these trades, I added them today on all trades after the name. Look the size of the trade isn’t as important as you think because, you could have a 400 lot in a name that sees no volume and that is more relevant than 10,000 calls bought on a name like TSLA that sees calls/puts galore daily. So keep that in mind. You can also see these when you look up the tickers individually, they’re all odd lots per the name but odd doesn’t have to be $10m.

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