4/27/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

We closed up friday with a clear break of the downtrend we’ve been in since February. We had back to back closes over the 21 ema and the short term trend is finally bullish again. What bulls need now is for this not to be another lower high. A move up and over the 200 day before it begins to slope down would be ideal and the major earnings reports we get this week will be critical in possibly doing that. The next resistance is the 50 day just slightly over 560, we haven’t closed over that once time since the pain began. At this moment while we haven’t gotten any specific trade deals the market seems to be pricing in that something will get done soon, I’m skeptical of that because China seems unwilling to work with us and that is the only deal the market cares about long term. The price action meanwhile currently says it is time to get long again.

On a weekly timeframe we just put in a bullish engulfing candle off the 100 week and closed over the 8 week for the first time since early February. This chart below is what makes being a bear so difficult, a month back we closed below the 100 week which is usually a very big deal and quite bearish, but just like the last time we did it in late 2023, we got one close below it and bounced back. This has been a weird 3 weeks, Trump talked this tough game but to this point has gotten nothing major done and has made concessions three times when it felt like stocks were about to lose it. He clearly is walking a fine line of trying to look like he’s being tough and ensuring the bottom doesn’t fall out of equities by pivoting to save stocks a few times. You have to love that as a bull because it shows how much society has shifted to where equities remaining elevated is of the utmost importance to the President and how he maintains his popularity amongst voters by making sure we don’t freefall.

Overall, lots of things are setting up, but I personally would like to see us get over those late March highs and this not be a lower high. We still are going to have a messy 90 days ahead in the real world when the shortages start to be felt. Bear markets have vicious rallies and this could very well be one. I’d say at this moment the crypto market still looks better than the equity market and a decoupling has occurred where that is performing far better year to date. I still do think from here something like bitcoin will outperform equities for the rest of the year and you saw the move this past week where stocks were up nicely but bitcoin was up more. After the writeup last weekend with the biggest proxy Microstrategy rising over 15% in the past 5 sessions I think it is pretty clear what is leading now. The relative strength is just too notable this past month. I think focusing on bitcoin over equities is prudent if nothing else just in the short term as that space doesn’t have tariff wars to contend with and it clearly isn’t trading inline with tech stocks anymore in 2025. If we face another ramp in the trade war, the crypto space might even be a safe haven as investors tire of the back and forth from the tariffs.

This week’s best idea is a tech name that saw 5 odd trades this past week, we’re going to look deeper at some trades that could pay off nicely if the bottom is in with this $100b+ name still almost 40% off highs and a nice chart setup.