4/29/26 Recap

The SPY continues to flag over the 8 ema here as we approach the moment of truth. We have Jerome Powell’s last FOMC today and earnings from 4 megacaps. Honestly for the moment things look good, we’re consolidating nicely almost 2 weeks sideways, the 8 ema has caught up and if things don’t go well today that 21 ema right below 700 would have to hold or we’d have major issues.

I think all the megacaps will report well the only thing I could see derailing the names is maybe a massive capex increase the market hates? Other than the numbers and guidance should be good. Let’s see what happens tomorrow but if you’re uncomfortable with where we are, taking some chips off here before such a big day is never a bad move. We just got news moments ago that we’re preparing for more strikes on Iran. The VIX did not like that and is back over 20 which and oil is up over 6%, not good. Something was weird the last 2 sessions, the market is not supposed to keep going up with oil and vix rising, something had to give. This is an interesting moment because Trump has said in the past when the market is high it gives him room to do things that may make it go lower and when we’re at lows he always saves it. So now with us at highs he can start bombing again and the minute oil gets too messy for him he can just do another ceasefire and oil falls 20% in a session like last time. He literally is in the drivers seat of this entire market.

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