4/30/25 Recap

The SPY had a perfect backtest so far of the downtrend today. We went down and were bought right at the 8/21 ema confluence. That’s what you want to see in an uptrend and for the last 4 sessions we technically are in one. This afternoon we have big reports from MSFT and META and by the end of tomorrow over 40% of the S&P will have reported. Numbers should be fine, its really about the guidance they give. Overall pretty normal action today, end of the month and we will have some monthly candles to look at here shortly. As far as economic data goes, it seems to be getting worse, this morning GDP was negative and we’re now one quarter away from a technical recession. Payrolls were down, personal consumption was down, and inflation was up and mind you this was all before the impacts of the tariffs are really factored in. This is just not looking good right now and proof that stocks are not the economy. Equities seem to be pricing in rate cuts all over the world, stimulus, you name it, and likely that is what is coming, it is just a question of when.

As we wrap up the first month of the “liberation” era, there are some very clear pockets of strength, you can spot them by looking through monthly candles. How many names are closing up higher today than where they opened in March? Not many. Here are 5 and they will be leadership going forward. Some space like crypto were unphased with Bitcoin rising over 10% from liberation day. You have to really note that and that’s why you see me positioning my book into strength.

1. UBER

2. NFLX

3. PLTR

4. MSTR

5. CRWD

My Open Book