4/5 Recap

The market got hit this morning on some more poor economic data. All the stars are aligning for them to officially declare a recession soon. On one hand the bulls will tell you that’s great because it means the fed will start cutting rates, on the otherwise bears will tell you that means earnings will be in decline and stocks are overvalued. Both are true, neither matters as stocks will do whatever they want to do. For the moment the SPY remains ok as we trend over all the key averages. Friday morning we have some very big data, but the market will be closed that day for Good Friday.

As you can see below, the S&P for now tested lower and rallied back a little, how we close today is key, but as long as we remain over the blue and yellow lines below, the 8 and 10 ema, short term, we are still bullish. Testing those levels and bouncing is perfectly normal and healthy action. I wouldn’t be neutral until we dip below that white uptrend line and I wouldn’t be bearish until we dip below that white downtrend line at the bottom. So those are the points of interest.

The regional banks seem to be trying to bottom, today they broke down but did not break below the recent lows on KRE. Today we bounced maybe 15 cents over those lows. As long as those hold it would be a welcome sight for bulls, but today was littered with more regional bank puts all over the place.

Trends

Some interesting smaller names are emerging on the shorter timeframes in these trends. On the bullish side names like APLS and EQT continue seeing short term bullish action with EQT seeing 6 unusual sized trades that were all bullish over the last 2 weeks. On the bearish side of things, the trends of the last 2 months are finally paying off as ARKK was crushed today down 4% as I type this and the second most bearish name BX is down 10% this week. What you’ll notice is very few of those BX puts came in the last 2 weeks so they were buying them all in the past and it finally paid off. That’s how these trends work, they slowly build positions in both directions and the moves tend to come later on. Hence why I remain bullish on names like SCHW,JD,AMZN,BABA regardless of the day to day action. The moves end up coming hard and fast.

1 Week

2 Week