4/7/25 Recap

Another chaotic day in our markets, we opened down early and got a fake headline saying Trump was going to give a 90 day pause on tariffs which instantly was met with a buying frenzy, then that rumor was debunked as fake news. Now moments ago Trump posted on Truth Social that unless China backs off the 34% tariffs they added friday he will add another 50% tariff ontop and the NQ immediately had a -500 point candle. The reality is I think most countries will fall inline, except China, unfortunately China is the one country that matters to everyone so this is looking like it can get significantly uglier with Trump seemingly playing Russian roulette at this point and not 4-D chess like everyone assumes. We have a low to work with now, you do not want to see a break of 481.80 on the SPY but I just do not see China caving to his demands in just 2 days, that isn’t their style and we could get an ugly move lower if they don’t. I still think we’re headed to that 200 week I mentioned this weekend which is right around 467 right now. The VIX remains very elevated so you’re going to have some wild intraday moves until that cools down.

Recent Trades

X - From this weekend’s trade ideas US Steel popped hard today on the deal potentially moving forward to 43+ up over 13%. This remains a solid place to hide and if you do not want to chase after a move like this just sell further dated puts lower in the 32-35 range.

My Open Book