4/7/26 Recap
The SPY closed right at the 21 ema yesterday and reversed lower today losing the 8 ema in the process. We remain firmly under the 200 day and are approaching 3 full weeks below the 200 day. Today is the big day, Trump has given the 8 pm EST deadline as his line in the sand on what comes next. His post this morning said he would wipe out an entire civilization tonight if they don’t make a deal. Does that mean a nuke? I really don’t think he’d dare do that because of the blowback but who knows. All I know is if Trump is going to followthrough with all his threats then tonight is the night. Iran has promised destruction across the gulf if we do and there is a very real possibility we have a nightmare in the next 24 hours. It’s a weird time to try and put positions on because no President in history can pull of a “deal” and pivot to where stocks rally hard the next few days based on what he says/does tonight. The gamut of possibilities tonight is endless. My best guess is he delays one more time and says something like “we’re close to the finish line” because you can tell the last couple weeks he’s been asking them to make a deal so he doesn’t have to do the bad things he’s saying he will do if they don’t because some have questioned if they would be war crimes if we attacked their infrastructure as promised. What a mess.
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