4/8/26 Recap
The SPY had a monster gap up on the 2 week ceasefire we announced. Look at us reclaimed the 200 day along with the 21 ema for the first time since the war began. From a technical perspective we’re finally in the clear, a new uptrend is here. You now have your level to stay long off and if we break that 21 ema that’s when you cut things. This is a good first step in starting a new uptrend but right now we’re hammering ontop of the 50 day but its still early in the session. It’s day 1, you’re not going to clear all the moving averages immediately and lots of people are going to be selling into this but this is substantial progress. We needed a really sharp move ASAP to hopefully avoid that 50/200 death cross that was maybe a 7 sessions away, now if we can build here we can possibly avoid it. Oil has been bid up all morning off the lows as well signaling some don’t think this is over.
Personally, I don’t think this whole situation is over, hopefully the worst of it is, but this is a small break to try and get a deal done. We’ve been working on a deal for over a month and don’t have one. It seems like Israel and Iran are already back to attacking each other after the ceasefire. This situation remains a colossal mess and frankly I don’t see how we accept the terms Iran offered. For starters they are trolling Trump all over Twitter which you know he hates. Then we’re getting news now that Iran will back out of this ceasefire if Israel doesn’t stop attacking Lebanon and Trump said that isn’t part of the deal. There are question marks galore. I get Trump wants to get out of this mess we’re in but Iran is now claiming they get billions in tolls on Hormuz, they get to keep their uranium and they want all US forces out of the region. The uranium was literally our 1 objective going into this. If we really agree to those terms, that is a big loss for the US. I can’t see Trump really doing that but who knows maybe he wants this war to be over with as we inch closer to midterms and can claim a small victory saying we set them back. Look how stocks reacted today, the market wasn’t a fan of the war. Hopefully, we can all come to a resolution in the 2 week timeframe but for now I don’t think we’re even close. In an ideal world we base here for 2 weeks, let the moving averages catch up, and hammer out an agreement in that timeframe before we make the next move higher. If this all falls apart in 2 weeks and we attack them, we will go lower.
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